Predictive model curbs at-risk behaviour

An intuitive, easy-to-use solution helps probation managers reduce risk and improve performance.

The UK’s National Offender Management Service (NOMS) provides offender management services in the community. The purpose of the agency is not only to see that court orders are carried out, but also to protect the public, reduce reoffending, and support rehabilitation by helping service users reform their lives. Critical to the agency’s goals is to ensure the best value for money from public resources. To that end, in 2013 NOMS opted to outsource the management of low- and medium-risk service users to a number of community rehabilitation companies (CRCs) through a value-based contract.

Because of Optimity’s extensive research into ways to reduce the risk of re-offenses, Optimity approached several of the CRCs and earned the opportunity to improve their operating model and determine whether their resources, staffing and interventions were actually reducing the risk of re-offending. Ultimately, the CRCs wish to prove the value of their services by showing consistent positive outcomes, while increasing their profitability. 

How We Helped: 

Developing the tools to predict human behaviour

Optimity defined risk stratification and a predictive modeling approach as key to transforming the CRCs’ operating model. In addition to creating a risk analysis model which predicted future behaviour of the service users, we worked collaboratively with probation managers to ensure that the reporting function would be intuitive and easy for the end user, many of whom are not tech savvy.


More time making a difference

Now implemented, the model enables the CRCs’ 60-70 case managers to know which service users are progressing, which are at risk, and which interventions are being managed. Every morning, they start their day by understanding which service users are most at risk and where they should spend their time, enabling them to help those who need it most.

Additionally, the model allows the CRCs’ management to measure case management effectiveness, review resources and make informed decisions regarding which probation managers are delivering against projections.


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